India seems to be in the grip of the global financial crisis. On October 24, 2008, the Bombay Stock Exchange SENSEX fell by 1071 points to close at 8701 points. In January 2008 it had crossed 21000 points. From 21000 to below 9000 is a sharp decline by any standard. The investors have lost their precious money.
The crisis affecting the Indian economy is imported from outside and is a part of the crisis currently going on in many parts of the world, mainly the United States of America and Europe..Many predict that the crisis would further aggravate.
Mr Robert B Zoellick, the World Bank president, says that the whole world would have to cooperate to face the crisis. which he termed as 'global'. But there are many who dispute this thinking and claim that the crisis is not a global one, mainly concerns the developed countries and is, in fact, a boon for the developing countries. Dr Bharat Jhunjhunwala is one such Indian economist.
Mr Zoellick says that if the global financial crisis deepens, the developing countries also may suffer and would not be able to get foreign investment. But the Global Development Finance Report published by the World Bank says that the funds allocated by the developing countries for creating their foreign exchange reserves is more than what they are receiving as foreign investment. Which means that the developing countries are exporting wealth. Therefore, as a result of the current crisis there may be some decline in the amount of foreign investment which the developing countries are receiving as foreign investment but at the same time their allocations for creating foreign exchange also may come down.
China has got a huge foreign exchange reserves of about US$ 1.9 trillion which in simple language means that it has provided this amount to the United States of America as an interest free loan. Many people think that a part of these massive reserves may turn towards the developing countries.
The World Bank president says that the high oil prices may be bad for the developing countries. But the fact is that the high oil prices are proving to be a boon for the oil producing developing countries as they are receiving astronomical sums of money from oil sales.
The World Bank says that the global financial crisis would affect exports from the developing countries. This may be true for the present. But the situation may soon change for the better. Because of increase in income of the oil producing developing countries, their imports would witness a rise and these imports would come from other developing countries. Therefore, the total amount of exports from the developing countries may not necessarily decrease.
Dr Jhunjhunwala says that the claim by Mr Zoellick is an effort to defend the US interests. It is true that the global financial structure will not remain the same. The allocation of capital by the developing countries for creating foreign exchange reserves would decrease and thus the flight of capital from these countries would be arrested. The income of oil and food exporting countries would go up. In this way the present financial crisis is a real danger for the developed countries but may be a boon for the developing countries.
But what Mr Zoellick says is partially true as those sectors of the developing countries' economy which are deeply tied to the economies of the developed countries would be affected. The share market is one such sphere. For the same reason we witnessed crash of share prices in the Indian bourses. But the share market crisis would eventually pass and it would regain its strength.
The fact is that the present financial crisis was born because of the increasing financial clout of the developing countries like India and China. The American companies could not face competition posed by the cheap Chinese quality goods and marvelous services provided by India at lower prices. The US companies were forced to retrench their employees. Thus the wages in the US came under pressure and the American workers could not repay their home loans. Banks foreclosed those loans, confiscated the mortgaged homes and put them for sale. Suddenly there were a lot of properties in the market and as a result of which the property prices crashed. The American banks suffered heavy losses. As many other countries also had invested in the US banks, they also were hit and thus the US crisis became a global crisis. In this way the real reason of this crisis is the production of the world quality goods and services by China and India.
Globalization means creation of a single market for the whole world. In that single global market the labor charges also would ultimately reach an almost equal level. An unskilled worker gets about Rs 4000/- a day in the US against Rs 200/- a day in India. These two rates would ultimately move towards a common rate. So the labor charges would decrease in the US and increase in India. Therefore, this crisis is in favor of India.
In the coming days China and India would become the two leading countries of the world. The effect of this crisis over countries like India would be temporary. The decline in the share prices and the value of Rupee in India would soon come to a halt. The reason of this decline is that the foreign investors are taking away their money from the Indian stock market. When all this money is returned both the share prices and the Indian Rupee would go up.
The World Bank president wants to protect the US interests. He does not say anything about the benefit accruing to the developing countries from this crisis. He should understand that the days of the US supremacy are over and China and India would soon become the leading countries of the world. The fact is that this crisis is the symbol of the victory of the third world countries like India and China. (The End)